MIAMI GARDENS — This is where Mike McDaniel proves his value.
McDaniel, the Dolphins’ 40-year-old, second-year coach, isn’t under duress. His job isn’t on the line.
But he’s now 1-5 in December games, perhaps the most critical month of the NFL season.
When you’ve been blessed with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, you can’t lose home games in December to sub-.500 teams by blowing a 14-point lead in the final three minutes.
And you can’t be 1-5 in December.
I like McDaniel. I genuinely think he’s a good coach. But let’s not give credit before it’s due. Ultimately, the record must confirm my thoughts.
This is a major part of the fallout from Monday’s shocking 28-27 loss to Tennessee.
McDaniel likes to dismissively mention what he thinks is a flawed narrative regarding his team, an inability to beat high-quality teams — with losses at Buffalo, at Philadelphia and against Kansas City in Germany.
There’s also the December narrative.
McDaniel is 1-2 at home in December with losses to Green Bay last season and Tennessee on Monday night, both of which had losing records (Green Bay entered the game 6-8, Tennessee was 4-8).
McDaniel, possibly the most likeable coach the Dolphins have ever had, also hasn’t beaten many high-quality teams as a head coach. He’s 4-9 (.444) against playoff teams the past two seasons and 0-3 this year against teams that have a winning record.
Of course, the bigger coaching concern, the one that’ll really determine whether McDaniel has success in December and if he should be considered a good coach, is Hill and his ailing left ankle. Or anything else that could slow Hill, the star receiver who should be named MVP.
If Hill is healthy, and stays healthy, McDaniel has a much better chance of being a good coach.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Miami’s offense is about two critical factors — Tyreek Hill, and the threat of Tyreek Hill.
If you remove either, the Dolphins are fairly easy to defend, and McDaniel isn’t nearly as highly-regarded as a coach.
If Hill is injured, or if the offensive line doesn’t give Tagovailoa enough time to get the ball to Hill, McDaniel’s coaching chops take a huge hit.
That’s not a shot at McDaniel. Most coaches have someone along those lines. Ask Bill Belichick. Ask Andy Reid.
Miami is 8-0 this season when Hill has 100 or more receiving yards.
Miami is 1-4 when Hill has fewer than 100 receiving yards.
The difference is much bigger this year than last year.
Miami was 6-5 last season, including playoffs, when Hill had fewer than 100 receiving yards.
It was 3-4 last season, including playoffs, when Hill had more than 100 receiving yards.
Most likely the Dolphins will beat the New York Jets at home on Sunday and improve to 10-4 before that murderer’s row finish of Dallas at home on Christmas Eve, Baltimore on the road on New Year’s Eve, and resurgent Buffalo at home in the regular-season finale on Jan. 7.
This is where McDaniel, despite a mounting injury problem, must rally his team.
Center/guard Liam Eichenberg left the locker room with a walking boot on his right foot Monday night.
The offensive line can’t afford to lose yet another starter.
Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead, who has battled ankle, quadriceps and knee problems, is borderline whether he’ll make it through the rest of the season healthy.
Right guard Rob Hunt, who is nursing a hamstring injury, appeared to have a huge bruise and knot on the back of his left hamstring while he was on the sideline wearing shorts during Monday’s game.
And center Connor Williams is done for the season after leaving Monday’s game with a knee injury.
Tagovailoa took a five-sack beating against the Titans. That’s scary considering the prospect of facing Dallas Cowboys sack-master Micah Parsons (12.5 sacks) in two weeks.
Miami is 0-4 this year when Tagovailoa is sacked three or more times and 9-0 when he’s sacked fewer than three times.
Interestingly, I find what happened defensively Monday night much less troubling than what happened offensively.
The defense will find its way. It has game-changing talent in lots of places.
I’ve still got to be convinced this offense, even with Tagovailoa, Waddle, and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, is more than Hill.
This is where McDaniel and his coaching come into play.
If this really is an innovative, creative, dynamic offense, McDaniel must show us ways it can put points on the board while Hill is slowed or sidelined.
And while he’s at it he’d better find out why his defense collapsed against Tennessee (I think it was an isolated incident despite missing key personnel) and why kicker Jason Sanders suffered his second blocked field goal attempt of the season, this one from 44 yards.
It’s all his responsibility.
Remember, McDaniel was 9-8 as a rookie last season, hardly elite territory.
This year they’ve said they haven’t been beaten by better teams, rather they’ve beaten themselves. I fail to see how that’s any better.
Nevertheless, you could argue Miami beat itself on Monday.
McDaniel pulled this team out of the doldrum of a late-season, five-game losing streak last year that threatened its playoff hopes. So we know he has the skills to turn things around.
I’m pulling for McDaniel. To have a successful season he must win a playoff game. You’d like to think that would also feature closing out the season in strong fashion, especially December.
I’m not comfortable thinking McDaniel’s entire offensive reputation with Miami is built on Hill.
I’m not comfortable thinking McDaniel can’t win in December.
I’m not comfortable thinking the McDaniel-led Dolphins can’t beat good teams.
But until I see McDaniel win in December and beat high-quality teams while showing some offensive diversity, I don’t see how I can think otherwise.
